What’s likely for mortgage rates by end of 2026

· According to recent estimates from Fannie Mae, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate could fall to ~6.2% by end of 2026.

· Other major institutions (including the Mortgage Bankers Association — MBA, National Association of Realtors — NAR, and the National Association of Home Builders — NAHB) generally project 2026 rates in the low-6% range (approx. 6.1%–6.4%).

· Some believe we might even dip just below 6% at times depending on economic conditions.

· In practical terms: if you’re looking for a 30-year fixed loan, rates may very gradually edge downward — but not likely plunge to the 3–4% levels seen pre-2022.

So: expect mortgage rates to remain in the ~6–6.5% zone, with a decent chance of modest easing to just under 6%, barring unexpected economic shocks.

What could prevent rates from dropping much — or push them higher

· If inflation resurges or economic data remains stronger than expected, long-term interest rates (like 10-year Treasury yields) could stay elevated, which directly influences mortgage rates.

· Even if the Federal Reserve lowers its short-term rate, that doesn’t guarantee a one-for-one drop in mortgage rates — historically, mortgage rates don’t always follow Fed moves precisely or immediately.

· Some forecasts and lenders warn rates could remain “sticky,” holding in the 6–6.5% band all year.

In short: we’re unlikely to see a return to ultra-low mortgage rates anytime soon unless inflation, economic growth, and global credit conditions all move sharply in a favorable direction.

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What this means for homebuyers in Las Vegas (or similar markets)

· If you’re shopping now or in the next 6–12 months, locking in a mortgage around low-to-mid 6% may be a reasonable decision — waiting for sub-6% rates is risky unless the economy dips or the Fed significantly shifts policy.

· Given rising home prices in many areas and tight housing inventory, modest improvements in mortgage rates may still provide some relief, but don’t expect a “housing-crisis-reset.”

· If you have flexibility, you could monitor rates and be ready to move quickly — but equally, don’t count on big rate drops when planning your purchase or refinance.